Russian dictator Vladimir Putin claims that victory in Ukraine is inevitable, and rejects any peace deal that doesn’t give him total control of the eastern part of the country, the Donbas.
Don’t believe it: Russia is not winning its war.
Russia has failed to conquer a smaller and poorer adversary despite nearly four years of campaigning.
Its military is severely underperforming, and Ukraine’s defenses have slowed Russian’s rate of advance to a literal footpace.
Russia has seized 0.6% of Ukraine this year, and has lost 1,000 soldiers per day doing it.
The Russians cannot maneuver or advance rapidly.
They’ve taken no major Ukrainian cities since 2022.
They are fighting for fields and small towns at extravagant losses that they can’t sustain.
Putin is only still in the game because of Chinese, North Korean and Iranian support.
He has convened an axis of evil and put himself at the center of our enemies, strengthening them all.
Yet they are still not winning in Ukraine — and, if we hold firm, they never will.
Some facts that Americans, particular doubters of Ukraine’s position, should keep in mind:
* Ukrainian drones have denied the Russians to use tanks and mechanized vehicles at scale, forcing Russian forces to deploy small, dismounted infantry units consisting of 3-5 soldiers. Most Russian soldiers die in droves to advance just meters at a time.
* The Institute for the Study of War assesses that Russian forces gained 1,420 square kilometers since July 1, 2025 — a rate of only about 13.5 square kilometers per day, well below the norm for modern mechanized warfare.
* Russian forces averaged roughly 71 casualties per square kilometer gained in May 2025; 70 casualties per square kilometer in June 2025; 75 casualties per square kilometer in July 2025; and 68 casualties per square kilometer in August 2025. These are horrifying numbers.
* At current pace, and assuming Russia doesn’t face an economic crisis and can enlist enough troops — both big “ifs” — it will not capture Donbas for at least another 3-4 years.
* Russia’s most successful effort in 2025 was recapturing Kursk (the Russian oblast Ukrainian forces invaded in a surprise move in August 2024) — an operation that depended on critical support from 10,000 North Korean soldiers, an embarrassment for Russia.
Until now, Putin has been able to sustain this war because of large-scale recruitment with financial incentives.
But there are signs that system is fraying.
Leaked Russian government documents indicate that country suffered on average 35,000 casualties per month from January–September 2025.
Yet it is cutting down on one-time signing bonuses for new military recruits.
Russia may need to switch to politically unpopular compulsory mobilization of reservists, which would increase internal dissent and threaten Putin’s leadership.
This is all while Putin has mismanaged Russia’s economy, which is suffering from increased war spending, inflation, labor shortages, and reductions in Russia’s sovereign wealth fund.
The liquidity portion of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund is down to $50.26 billion as of October 2025, down from $113 billion in 2022 — a decrease of more than 55%.
Russia is facing significant inflation from heavy government spending, with its key interest rate at 16.5%.
The country is facing a gasoline shortage of 13% to 20% of demand due to recent Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries, which US intelligence is supporting.
Also credit President Trump’s sanctions on Russian oil companies for stripping away this major revenue source.
In short, the Russian position is unsustainable in the long term, which is why it is desperate to convince the White House, the West and its own domestic population that its superiority is written, so Ukraine should just surrender now.
Russia is reportedly increasing its federal spending on propaganda in the 2026 budget by 54% compared to the 2025 federal budget.
It floods social media with bots and paid commentators to push a false narrative.
They play up minuscule battlefield advances as significant wins to manipulate our perception of the facts.
The path forward should include not only economic pressure but also increased military support for Ukraine.
Force Putin to stop this war on our terms, not his.
Jack Keane, a retired four-star general, is a former Army vice chief of staff and current chairman at the Institute for the Study of War. Contributing to the article was George Barros, Russia Team Lead at the Institute for the Study of War.