There’s some interesting and vital data which was released last week, just ahead of this coming Friday’s historic Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, which will focuse on finding a solution to ending the Russia-Ukraine war, though the US leader has just tempered expectations by calling it a “feel-out meeting”.
Gallup released a poll last Thursday which demonstrates a dramatic shift in Ukrainian public opinion, with 69% of the population now favoring a negotiated settlement to end the grinding war as soon as possible.
General war weariness has long been a feature of the conflict, which has been raging for over 540 days at this point, and has taken at least tens of thousands or possibly hundreds of thousands of lives. Many Ukrainians fled abroad during the first year, and huge amounts of people are still internally displaced in the war-ravaged country.
The fresh Gallup poll found that just 24% support continuing the fight until achieving a military victory, which is a stark reversal from views held at the start of the war more than three years ago.
And yet this undefined goal of ‘pushing on until victory’ seems to remain the Zelensky government’s policy. The Ukrainian leader has shown no signs whatsoever of being willing to make significant compromise to find a lasting truce, including on territorial concessions.
There was a similar Gallup survey of the Ukrianian population closer to the beginnign war, in 2022. At that early point Gallup found that 72% of Ukrainians wanted to keep fighting, while just 22% supported peace talks.
But since then Russia’s strategy has become clear – to use its overwhelming manpower and artillery and missile supply to steadily grind down Ukraine’s dwindling manpower and resolve.
It has become a war of attrition, and Russia has shown itself steady and prepared for such a long conflict. And this is probably why the same survey found that Ukrainians’Â hopes for swift admission into either the EU or NATO are fading.
The more evident it becomes that Russia is ‘winning’ the war – the less that the West’s political establishment wants to risk, also amid fears of potential run-up to direct confrontation between NATO and Moscow.
At the same time Ukrainians’ outlook on Washington has turned more negative:
In reviewing the findings, Gallup offers the following conclusion…
“Support for the war effort has declined steadily across all segments of the Ukrainian population, regardless of region or demographic group.”
It continued, “This shift comes as diplomatic efforts gain new traction. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has signaled readiness for direct talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin…”. However, the reality remains is that neigher side has yet budged from their respective ‘maximalist’ conditions for truce.
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