Orange juice futures in New York are on track for the steepest weekly decline on record, with losses exceeding 26%, after the Trump administration formally excluded Brazilian OJ from the newly proposed 50% tariffs on U.S. imports from the South American country. The exemption sparked a sharp reversal in speculative positioning in the contracts, erasing a multi-week rally fueled by trade disruption fears.
The executive order signed by President Trump on Wednesday delayed the implementation of 50% tariffs on Brazilian exports by seven days, while exempting several products, including orange juice, civil aircraft, iron ore, coal, wood pulp, machinery, and fertilizers.
“The tide seems to be turning again for Brazil (more favorably as of Wednesday) with the announcement of a delay (by seven days) in the 50% tariff and the inclusion of some 700 exceptions (or about 45% of exports exempted from the 40pp hike) to the US tariffs on Brazilian imports (crude oil, airplanes and orange juice as the most relevant lines),” UBS analyst Justin Wensek told clients earlier this week.
He noted, “This is a better outcome than the market had been pricing in. However, even if there were no exceptions, as UBS Brazil economists note, the roughly 60% of Brazilian exports to U.S. could be almost immediately re-routed to other countries.”
Craig Elliott, a market analyst at Expana, said Trump’s Brazilian tariffs seem to bring about a “collective sigh of relief.”
“The orange juice market is currently facing challenges even without the threat of tariffs, and there does seem to be a sense of being able to get back to business as usual, and solving the difficulties,” Elliott said.
Orange juice futures in New York declined 9.2% on Friday, pushing them toward a staggering 26.5% weekly decline. This is the largest weekly decline recorded since futures data began in 1967.
The U.S. accounts for 40% of Brazil’s orange juice exports because the greening disease has decimated U.S. supplies in Florida.
OJ prices have been halved since peaking above $5 a pound in late 2024.
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