Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
It was earlier assessed that “The Next Putin-Trump Meeting Might Lead To Something Tangible This Time Around” due to newfound mutual interests in reaching a deal, but then Trump canceled the Budapest Summit on the grounds that he didn’t think it’d be worth his time.
He also imposed new energy sanctions on Russia and might be lying about not having approved Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles.
Trump’s latest flip-flop surprised many but can be attributable in hindsight to the following five reasons:
1. He’s Driving A Hard Bargain To Coerce Putin Into Maximum Concessions
Russia’s minimum goal is to obtain full control over Donbass, without which Putin can’t hypothetically freeze (let alone end) the war without “losing face”. Trump refuses to coerce Zelensky into withdrawing from there, instead believing that he can coerce Putin into freezing the conflict without first controlling Donbass, thus amounting to maximum concessions. That’s still unacceptable for Putin and might always be, but Trump seems to be taking his refusal personally, perhaps seeing it as a challenge to his authority.
2. The Warmongers Appear To Have Once Again Made Him Change His Mind
Trump’s announcement was made during a meeting with NATO chief Mark Rutte, thus suggesting that warmongers like him, Zelensky, Lindsey Graham, and others still have his ear. He’s infamously capricious, with many having noticed that he tends to be influenced by the last person who talked to him. This idiosyncrasy makes him comparatively easier to manipulate than most, which has enormous implications in terms of how certain lobbies and foreign forces could influence US policy throughout his second term.
3. Trump Seems To Truly Believe That The Any Escalation Will Remain Manageable
Trump wouldn’t try to drive a hard bargain and end up giving in to the warmongers unless he truly believed that any Russian-US escalation would remain manageable. His calculation presupposes that there won’t be any overwhelming response from Putin that would then push them towards climbing the escalation ladder all the way to the top. It’s predicated on the assumption that Russia is weaker than the US and will therefore back down if significantly pressured. That’s a gamble to take.
4. He’s Also Not Abandoning His Stratagem Of Dividing-And-Ruling Eurasia
Senior refinery executives told NDTV that “Flows of Russian oil to major Indian processors are expected to fall to near zero” after the latest sanctions, which could divide the newly solidified Russia-India-China (RIC) triangle if true. Trump might also expect that China will do the same to get him to curtail the additional 100% tariffs that he threatened to impose on it next month. He could still be proven wrong on both counts, but in any case, his latest escalation shows that he’s still trying to divide-and-rule Eurasia.
5. Trump Might Be Betting On Chinese Non-Compliance With The Latest Sanctions
China isn’t expected to comply with the US’ latest sanctions since it’ll gain by purchasing at a steep discount whatever oil Russia might soon be unable to sell to India. The interim Sino-US trade deal might then collapse if Trump imposes his threatened tariffs on China and makes their curtailing conditional on it dumping Russian oil. He might even want this predictable sequence of events to unfold, however, so as to justify accelerating his planned “Pivot (back) to (East) Asia” for more muscularly containing China.
Trump’s reason for once again escalating against Russia is primarily due to his belief (however possibly mistaken) that Putin won’t risk tensions spiraling out of control in response even if he never agrees to the maximum concessions being demanded of him.
The US might have also concluded, whether rightly or wrong, that India is the weak link in RIC which can be coerced into breaking up BRICS.
To be clear, these explanations don’t equate to endorsements, but they cogently account for what Trump just did.
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