Dead Cat Bounce Or Bottom? Novo Jumps On Ozempic Study As Goldman Weighs In

Novo Nordisk shares jumped the most in 18 months in Copenhagen trading on Thursday after its diabetes wonder drug Ozempic beat Eli Lilly’s older drug Trulicity in a real-world survey of 60,000 Medicare patients with diabetes and heart disease. 

The new study was revealed at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes conference in Vienna earlier today. It showed that Medicare patients who took Ozempic were 23% less likely to suffer heart attacks, strokes, or death compared with those on Trulicity. 

Shares of Novo Nordisk in Copenhagen surged 7% on the announcement of the study, but remain down 36.5% year-to-date and more than 61.5% below the June 2024 peak of DKK 1,000. For Goldman analysts like Novo superbull James Quigley, the question is whether the 37% rebound since early August marks an actual bottom, or just another dead cat bounce.

Quigley penned a note to clients about the key takeaways from the new study presented at the EASD conference:

Novo hosted an R&D investor event in conjunction with the EASD conference in Vienna.

Our key takeaways were:

1. Amycretin is primarily an obesity drug not a diabetes drug and base case is a similar efficacy, tolerability and safety as CagriSema but with one API, with an upside case being a better profile than CagriSema,

2. Cagrilintide monotherapy trials will not use forced titration, could test higher doses, and will generate data in more subpopulations. On the need for a potential CVOT, the company said it is too early to say.

3. EVOKE/EVOKE+ is powered for 20% slowing in cognitive decline but can detect low teens % based on powering.

The company commented any statistically significant result would be seen as meaningful based on clinician feedback. Overall, our conversations with management as well as KOL commentary at the EASD conference further highlights to us that in order to be successful in obesity, companies will need for a broad pipeline supported by deep databases behind each asset, as obesity will not be a one size fits all market, particularly with new entrants on the horizon.

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ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full note here, along with more details on Quigley’s 12-month price target.