Bitcoin enters September trading near $107,000, but history isn’t on its side.
The month has been the weakest for BTC on average, with a median decline of approximately 5% and an average loss of around 6% over the past 12 years of market data.
Some point out MicroStrategy’s premium over Bitcoin is slipping at the same time September’s seasonal weakness looms. Nick Ruck of LVRG Research warns this reflects deeper doubts about the company’s treasury-heavy strategy.
“MicroStrategy’s recent struggle to maintain its Bitcoin premium reflects a broader market shift where investors are questioning the sustainability of corporate treasury models focused solely on crypto accumulation, a dynamic that could be exacerbated by September’s historically bearish trend for crypto assets,” Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research.
“This cooling appetite underscores a maturation in crypto markets, where structural vulnerabilities and competition are forcing a reevaluation of what truly drives long-term value beyond mere Bitcoin proxies,” Ruck added.
With Fed rate-cut bets building into September, a dovish turn could soften the seasonal drag. Conversely, fresh ETF outflows or another equity selloff could reinforce the historical pattern and push BTC toward $100,000 support.
Meanwhile, ether (ETH) fell 1.7% to $4,390, while Solana’s SOL (SOL) dropped 3.4% to $197.6. XRP slid 4.3% to $2.72 and dogecoin retreated 4.2% to 21 cents, extending last week’s gains into reversals.
Since 2013, bitcoin has closed red in September eight out of twelve times, with brutal drawdowns like 2019’s 13% slide and 2014’s 19% slump. Even during bull cycles, rallies have tended to stall. The lone bright spots were 2015, 2016, and 2023, with gains ranging from 2% to 7%.
That consistency has led traders to treat September almost as a seasonality trade. Seasonality refers to the tendency of assets to exhibit regular and predictable fluctuations that recur throughout the calendar year.
While it may appear random, possible reasons range from profit-taking around tax season in April and May, which can cause drawdowns, to the generally bullish “Santa Claus” rally in December, a sign of increased demand.
The pattern isn’t unique to crypto, as equities also show weakness around this time of year; however, BTC’s sharper volatility makes it stand out.
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