Ether slid, then bounced late as activity picked up and the trading range tightened, leaving nearby checkpoints in focus.
Context
Stocks fell as the S&P 500 closed down 0.99% at 6,822.34 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.57% to 23,581.14. The VIX rose to 17.22, up 1.77% on the day.
Macro tone also stayed cautious after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at his Oct. 29 FOMC press conference that a December rate cut was not assured.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to 99.52 on Oct. 30 from 98.57 on Oct. 28, while U.S.-China talks remained without a trade deal despite upbeat comments from President Donald Trump about meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Ethereum core developers scheduled the Fusaka upgrade for Dec. 3 following the network’s biweekly coordination call on Oct. 30.
Technical analysis highlights
The following is based on CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis data model.
- Move vs market: Ether’s retreat from the $3,921 area tracked a broader crypto slide, with institutional flows turning negative at resistance.
- Path and range: The session traced a bearish structure, falling from $3,921.43 to $3,731.00 for a $230.31 range (about 5.9%).
- Breakdown locus: The decisive push lower came when $3,880 gave way, alongside a peak 443,415 print, about 103% over the 24-hour norm.
- Late bounce: From $3,731, ether climbed 1.35% to $3,771.82 and broke back above $3,760, which had capped earlier attempts.
- Participation: Session volume ran 32% above the seven-day average.
What the patterns suggest
- Breakdown, then test: Losing $3,880 confirms sellers were active at that ceiling; reclaiming $3,760 is the first sign buyers pushed back.
- Range behavior: With lower highs overhead and a higher low off $3,731, the model flags range-bound trade between $3,730 to $3,880 near term.
- Tone of the bounce: Recovery came on moderate flows, which looks like measured buying rather than a short squeeze.
Support and resistance map
- Primary resistance: $3,840 to $3,880 (post-breakdown band).
- Secondary resistance: $3,760, now reclaimed and a nearby checkpoint.
- Critical support: $3,731 (session low).
- Major support confluence: $3,700 to $3,720.
Volume picture
- Overall: +32% versus the seven-day average.
- Peak: 443,415 on the $3,880 breakdown (about 103% over the 24-hour norm).
- On the rebound: Moderate flows indicate measured demand, not broad capitulation or a squeeze.
Targets and risk framing
- If buyers press: A move above $3,840 opens a run to $3,880, then $3,920.
- If sellers regain control: Failure at $3,760 leaves $3,700 exposed, with $3,650 as the next risk zone.
- Tactical takeaway: With participation elevated and the band $3,730 to $3,880 well defined, many traders wait for a clear break or a decisive reclaim before leaning harder either way.
Disclaimer: Parts of this article were generated with the assistance from AI tools and reviewed by our editorial team to ensure accuracy and adherence to our standards. For more information, see CoinDesk’s full AI Policy.