MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin and long seen as a leveraged bet on the crypto, has shed nearly $18 billion in market value as enthusiasm dried up and its net asset value (mNAV) premium collapsed in recent months.
The stock may be poised for a rebound as a series of key catalysts could reverse the bearish trend as soon as this week, according to a fresh report by 10x Research’s Markus Thielen, who previously had been bearish on the name.
“At today’s price, with the NAV premium largely gone, volatility trending higher, and a potential catalyst in the form of strong Q3 earnings and renewed S&P 500 inclusion speculation, we see Strategy as attractive at current levels,” Thielen wrote, noting that the stock here could offer better value than bitcoin itself.
The stock’s slump to below $280 (down another 1.8% on Wednesday) has left the market cap sitting at barely above the value of the bitcoin on the company balance sheet. That marks a sharp reversal from late 2024, when speculative premiums, said Thielen, which pushed the stock far above its fundamentals.
While the 40% decline since July left has sentiment “washed out” and retail interest low, the firm’s Thursday earnings report could mark a pivot, said Thielen.
He expects the firm to report a roughly $3.6 billion profit from mark-to-market gains on its BTC holdings. The profit could reset speculation for a potential S&P 500 index inclusion decision in December — a move in which Thielen has now assigned a 60–70% probability.
Including the stock in one of the most important equity indexes in the world could drive up to $28 billion in passive and active fund flows, setting up MSTR for a similar rally seen in Coinbase (COIN) and Robinhood (HOOD) following their inclusions into the S&P 500.
“Capitulation always feels like the end — until it quietly marks the beginning,” Thielen said.
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